Comparison of ARIMA model and XGBoost model for prediction of human brucellosis

payt.helady61 shared this article with you from Inoreader Comparison of ARIMA model and XGBoost model for prediction of human brucellosis in mainland China: a time-series study Via BMJ Open recent issues Objectives Human brucellosis is a public health problem endangering health and property in China. Predicting the trend and the seasonality of human brucellosis is of great significance for its prevention. In this study, a comparison between the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was conducted to determine which was more suitable for predicting the occurrence of brucellosis in mainland China. Design Time-series study. Setting Mainland China. Methods Data on human brucellosis in mainland China were provided by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China. The data were divided into a training set and a test set. The training set was composed of the monthly incidence of human brucellosis in mainland China from January 2008 to June 2018, and the test set was composed of the monthly incidence from July 2018 to June 2019. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the effects of model fitting and prediction. Results The number of human brucellosis patients in mainland China increased from 30 002 in 2008 to 40 328 in 2018. There was an increasing trend and obvious seasonal distribution in the original time series. For the training set, the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the ARIMA(0,1,1)x(0,1,1)12 model were 338.867, 450.223 and 10.323, respectively, and the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the XGBoost model were 189.332, 262.458 and 4.475, respectively. For the test set, the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the ARIMA(0,1,1)x(0,1,1)12 model were 529.406, 586.059 and 17.676, respectively, and the MAE, RSME and MAPE of the XGBoost model were 249.307, 280.645 and 7.643, respectively. Conclusions The performance of the XGBoost model was better than that of the ARIMA model. The XGBoost model is more suitable for prediction cases of human brucellosis in mainland China. View on the web Inoreader. Take back control of your news feed. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Evidence of sociocultural factors influencing intimate partner violence among young women

payt.helady61 shared this article with you from Inoreader Evidence of sociocultural factors influencing intimate partner violence among young women in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review Via BMJ Open recent issues Objective This study carried out a scoping review of research on intimate partner violence to determine the extent to which studies on sociocultural factors influencing intimate partner violence among young women (15–24 years) have been conducted, and how different geographical areas are represented. It also considered whether the methodologies used were sufficient to describe the risk factors, prevalence and health outcomes associated with intimate partner violence among young women. Study design Scoping review. Methods Online databases were used to identify studies published between 2008 and 2019. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis guidelines by Arksey and O'Malley were used to select studies, and primary studies were assessed using the Mixed Method Appraisal Tool, V.2011. Thematic content analysis was used to summarise the findings of the scoping review. Results The majority of publications eight (61.5%) reported cross-sectional studies, while four (31.5%) were qualitative studies. One of the studies (7%) collected measured data. Overall, 13 (100%) of the publications examined factors influencing intimate partner violence. Using a customised quality assessment instrument, 12 (92.3%) of studies achieved a 'high'-quality ranking with a score of 100%, and 7.7% of studies achieved an 'average' quality ranking with a score of 75%. Conclusions While the quality of the studies is generally high, researches on sociocultural factors influencing intimate partner violence among young women would benefit from a careful selection of methods and reference standards, including direct measures of the violence affecting young women. Prospective cohort studies are required linking early exposure with individual, sociocultural and community factors, and detailing the abuse experienced from childhood, adolescence and youth. PROSPERO registration number CRD42018116463. Scoping protocol publication https://doi.org/10.1186/s13643-019-1234-y View on the web Inoreader. Take back control of your news feed. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Use of implantable meshes for augmented rotator cuff repair: a systematic review and meta-analysis

payt.helady61 shared this article with you from Inoreader Use of implantable meshes for augmented rotator cuff repair: a systematic review and meta-analysis Via BMJ Open recent issues Objective To appraise studies reporting on clinical effectiveness and safety of surgical meshes used to augment rotator cuff repairs (RCRs). Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched between April 2006 and April 2020. Eligibility criteria All studies evaluating adults (≥18 years) undergoing RCR were considered. There were no language restrictions. Data extraction and synthesis Screening, data extraction and quality appraisal were conducted by two independent reviewers. Meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effects models if ≥2 comparative studies reported the same outcome measure. Risk of bias assessment was undertaken for randomised (RoB2, Cochrane) and comparative studies (ROBINS-I, Cochrane). Results We included 60 studies, consisting of 7 randomised controlled trials, 13 observational comparative studies and 40 observational case series. All comparative studies reported on shoulder-specific functional outcome scores, 18 on the radiographic occurrence of re-tear and 14 on pain score metrics. All studies contained some risk of bias. Compared with non-augmented repair, a small improvement in shoulder-specific function or pain scores was observed for synthetic patches with a mean improvement of 6.7 points on the University of California Los Angles (UCLA) shoulder score (95% CI 0.1 to 13.4) and 0.46 point reduction on the Visual Analogue Scale (95% CI –0.74 to –0.17), respectively. A reduced likelihood of radiologically observed re-tear was observed for synthetic (risk ratio (RR) 0.41, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.61) and allograft (RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.65) patches. A total of 49 studies reported on the occurrence of complications. Slightly higher crude complication rates were observed following patch-augmented repair (2.1%) than standard repair (1.6%). Conclusions While several studies suggest a decreased failure rate and small improvements in shoulder function and pain following augmented RCR, a paucity of rigorous clinical evaluation, for both effectiveness and safety, prevents firm recommendations. Prospero registration number CRD42017057908. View on the web Inoreader. Take back control of your news feed. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Relationship between acute pain trajectories after an emergency department visit and chronic pain: a Canadian prospective cohort study

payt.helady61 shared this article with you from Inoreader Relationship between acute pain trajectories after an emergency department visit and chronic pain: a Canadian prospective cohort study Via BMJ Open recent issues Objectives Inadequate acute pain management can reduce the quality of life, cause unnecessary suffering and can often lead to the development of chronic pain. Using group-based trajectory modelling, we previously identified six distinct pain intensity trajectories for the first 14-day postemergency department (ED) discharge; two linear ones with moderate or severe pain during follow-up (~40% of the patients) and four cubic polynomial order trajectories with mild or no pain at the end of the 14 days (low final pain trajectories). We assessed if previously described acute pain intensity trajectories over 14 days after ED discharge are predictive of chronic pain 3 months later. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary care trauma centre academic hospital. Participants This study included 18 years and older ED patients who consulted for acute (≤2 weeks) pain conditions that were discharged with an opioid prescription. Patients completed a 14-day diary in which they listed their daily pain intensity (0–10 numeric rating scale). Outcomes Three months after ED visit, participants were questioned by phone about their current pain intensity (0–10 numeric rating scale). Chronic pain was defined as patients with current pain intensity ≥4 at 3 months. Results A total of 305 participants remained in the study at 3 months, 49% were women and a mean age of 55±15 years. Twelve per cent (11.9; 95% CI 8.2 to 15.4) of patients had chronic pain at the 3-month follow-up. Controlling for age, sex and pain condition, patients with moderate or severe pain trajectories and those with only a severe pain trajectory were respectively 5.1 (95% CI 2.2 to 11.8) and 8.2 (95% CI 3.4 to 20.0) times more likely to develop chronic pain 3 months later compared with patients in the low final pain trajectories. Conclusion Specific acute pain trajectories following an ED visit are closely related to the development of chronic pain 3 months later. Trial registration number NCT02799004; Results. View on the web Inoreader. Take back control of your news feed. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Real-world patterns of pegloticase use for treatment of gout: descriptive multidatabase cohort study

payt.helady61 shared this article with you from Inoreader Real-world patterns of pegloticase use for treatment of gout: descriptive multidatabase cohort study Via BMJ Open recent issues Objective Pegloticase is used in severe refractory gout or in cases of intolerance to other urate-lowering therapies. We sought to evaluate the patterns of pegloticase use in the USA and the incidence of safety outcomes. Methods We conducted a retrospective descriptive study using data from two US commercial insurance claims databases (2010–2018). We identified new initiators of pegloticase with ≥1 gout diagnosis code in the 365-day baseline period prior to pegloticase initiation. We measured the number and duration of pegloticase infusions. We assessed the risk of anaphylaxis or anaphylactoid reactions, cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction or stroke, and hospitalisation for heart failure (new onset or exacerbations) while undergoing pegloticase therapy. Results Among 2.9 million patients with ≥1 diagnosis of gout, we identified only 483 (179 in Optum and 304 in MarketScan) pegloticase initiators. The mean age and % female was 55.6 years, 10.9% for MarketScan and 60.6 years and 17.3% for Optum. Hypertension was present in up to 85%, diabetes mellitus in 38%, chronic kidney disease in 46% and heart failure in 21% of the patients. The median number of infusions was four and the duration of therapy was 3 months. During the mean 0.5-year follow-up time on pegloticase, there were 3 (0.6%) anaphylaxis, 7 (1.4%) composite cardiovascular, 31 (6.4%) heart failure hospitalisations and 3 (0.6%) deaths. Conclusion Pegloticase is rarely used in gout, and the median duration of pegloticase therapy was 3 months. There were few anaphylaxis events captured in this claims-based study, while heart failure hospitalisations were common. View on the web Inoreader. Take back control of your news feed. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Association between age-related macular degeneration and arthritis

payt.helady61 shared this article with you from Inoreader Cross-sectional study of the association between age-related macular degeneration and arthritis in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-2008 Via BMJ Open recent issues Objective To explore the association between age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and arthritis in a representative sample of the US population. Design Population-based, cross-sectional study. Setting The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2008. Participants A total of 4813 participants aged 40 years and older with available information on AMD and arthritis in the 2005–2008 NHANES. Methods The status and types of arthritis were obtained from questionnaires. Non-mydriatic fundus photographs were collected. The types of AMD were assessed using the modified Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading Classification Scheme. The association between arthritis and AMD was evaluated using logistic regression models. Results After adjusting for covariates, participants with any or early AMD had significantly lower odds of having any type of arthritis (any AMD: OR=0.56, 95% CI: 0.36–0.86; early AMD: OR=0.55, 95% CI: 0.34–0.88) or osteoarthritis (OA) (any AMD: OR=0.43, 95% CI: 0.26–0.71; early AMD: OR=0.44, 95% CI: 0.25–0.76) compared with those without AMD. When considering AMD as the outcome, significant negative associations were also found between any arthritis or OA and any (any arthritis: OR=0.64, 95% CI: 0.43–0.94; OA: OR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.33–0.82) or early AMD (any arthritis: OR=0.61, 95% CI: 0.40–0.93; OA: OR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.31–0.86) in the multivariable logistic models. There was no significant association between different types of arthritis and late AMD. Conclusions People with arthritis, especially those with OA, were less likely to have AMD compared with those without arthritis and vice versa. Further studies are needed to confirm this potential protective effect of arthritis and/or arthritis treatment on AMD and to explore the underlying mechanisms. View on the web Inoreader. Take back control of your news feed. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

The use of grafts in frontal sinus drill-outs

pa.ythelady61 shared this article with you from Inoreader The use of grafts in frontal sinus drill-outs Via Current Opinion in Otolaryngology & Head and Neck Surgery - Published Ahead-of-Print Purpose of review A significant complication of the frontal sinus drill-out procedure is restenosis of the frontal neo-ostium. To improve postoperative healing in this region, various mucosal grafts and pedicled flaps have been designed to reconstruct the mucosal lining of the frontal neo-ostium. We provide an overview of the types of grafts described for reconstruction and discuss the latest evidence on their efficacy. Recent findings Frontal neo-ostium mucosal reconstruction may be performed using free, pedicled, or a combination of grafts. There are several case series that report good outcomes and low revision rates following the use of grafts in frontal sinus drill-outs, and one randomized controlled study demonstrating increased ostial patency. However, the use of grafts did not alter the rate of revision surgery and only one study reported an improvement in Sino-Nasal Outcome Test-22 scores after one year. Summary Studies have suggested that frontal sinus drill-out grafts result in favorable restenosis and graft success rates. However, larger randomized control trials will be required to determine whether frontal sinus drill-out grafts contribute to a tangible clinical benefit for patients. Correspondence to Richard Douglas, FRACP, FRACS, MD, Department of Surgery, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand. Tel: +64 9 9239820; e-mail: richard.douglas@auckland.ac.nz Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. View on the web Inoreader. Take back control of your news feed. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.