Abstract
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China. The current study aims to characterize the spatial-temporal dynamics of HFRS in mainland China during a long-term period (1950-2018). A total of 1,665,431 cases of HFRS were reported with an average annual incidence of 54.22 cases/100,000 individuals during 1950-2018. The joint regression model was used to define the global trend of the HFRS cases with an increasing-decreasing-slightly increasing-decreasing-slightly increasing trend during the 68 years. Then spatial correlation analysis and wavelet cluster analysis were used to identify four types of clusters of HFRS cases located in central and northeastern China. Lastly, the Prophet model predicts that 14,223 cases of HFRS will occur in mainland China during 2019-2038. Our findings will help reduce the knowledge gap on the transmission dynamics and distribution patterns of the HFRS in mainland China and facilitate to take rel evant preventive and control measures for the high-risk epidemic area.
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