A preliminary calculation of cement carbon dioxide in China from 1949 to 2050

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from China are of global concern. As energy-, resource-intensive and greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution emissions, China's cement-related CO₂ emissions and environmental effect attracted more and more attention reasonably. A multiple-year's cement CO₂ emissions were estimated in China based on actual and projected cement output and CO₂ emission factor (EF) from the perspective of technological improvement for the period 1949–2050. The more than 100 years' time scale was divided into three periods: 1949–1979, 1980–2015, and 2016–2050, which mainly based on China's socio-economy and technological improvement (i.e., transformed cement kilns and popularized waste heat recovery, WHR). The bottom-up model was used for calculating cement-related CO₂ emissions after analyzing processes of cement production, and we found China's comprehensive cement CO₂ EF (CCEF) was about 1694.31 kg CO₂ per ton of cement in 1949, and declined to 737.01 kg CO₂ per ton of cement in 2015. Furthermore, it is likely that China's cement output is about 1617.50 Mt in 2050. Meanwhile, China's CCEF is about 576.02 kg CO₂ per ton of cement which based on likely realistic scenario (LRS), and CO₂ emissions are about 931.71 Mt in 2050, which is about half lower than those in 2014. It is important for calculating China's cement emissions in the society and rank around the world. For China's cement CO₂ emission reduction, the contribution of technological innovation or improvement (TII) was undeniable, but the degree of CO₂ reduction was limited, especially when the technological diffusion rate was close to saturation. The Chinese government is ambitious in controlling cement-related CO₂ emissions and should start with controlling cement capacity, utilization of alternative raw materials (ARMs) and alternative fuels (AFs), and establishing a sound carbon trading market.

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